Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 1.348634 1.430607 1.516198 1.612455 1.717964 1.830399 1.959674
2026-01-18 1.223018 1.338313 1.464397 1.613382 1.785744 1.980271 2.218409
2026-01-25 1.157948 1.295110 1.450138 1.640073 1.868930 2.139000 2.486743
2026-02-01 1.078132 1.224828 1.394626 1.608271 1.873691 2.197855 2.632279
2026-02-08 1.006428 1.157492 1.335670 1.564710 1.856451 2.223097 2.731474
2026-02-15 0.959790 1.116437 1.304460 1.551073 1.872775 2.288456 2.884606
2026-02-22 0.926734 1.089445 1.287981 1.553409 1.907699 2.378097 3.075855
2026-03-01 0.885559 1.049845 1.252957 1.528738 1.903837 2.413241 3.190752
2026-03-08 0.840862 1.003583 1.206890 1.486413 1.872487 2.406680 3.241822
2026-03-15 0.812538 0.976869 1.184557 1.474047 1.880746 2.455368 3.378559
2026-03-22 0.800891 0.970973 1.188794 1.497307 1.939506 2.580094 3.643983
2026-03-29 0.782321 0.955083 1.178795 1.499946 1.968172 2.661233 3.846299
2026-04-05 0.769157 0.946526 1.179139 1.518325 2.022831 2.788963 4.146050
2026-04-12 0.750136 0.929415 1.167109 1.518411 2.050147 2.876160 4.386758
2026-04-19 0.740806 0.924892 1.171972 1.542797 2.115473 3.028943 4.764174
2026-04-26 0.714487 0.896115 1.141698 1.513715 2.095319 3.038325 4.873000
2026-05-03 0.686281 0.863842 1.105326 1.473842 2.055642 3.011479 4.907756
2026-05-10 0.668353 0.845265 1.087721 1.461349 2.058978 3.058385 5.094563
2026-05-17 0.655966 0.833992 1.080076 1.463490 2.085934 3.148239 5.380831
2026-05-24 0.636841 0.812635 1.057085 1.440881 2.070463 3.160559 5.503351
2026-05-31 0.613878 0.785246 1.024493 1.402059 2.025793 3.116414 5.496661
2026-06-07 0.599961 0.770382 1.009797 1.390708 2.027015 3.157177 5.685710
2026-06-14 0.595971 0.769569 1.015706 1.412055 2.085271 3.309637 6.155684